Minnesota Update, 06.12.2023
I don’t know how old the readers of this blog might be, but it occurs to me that some of them might be not only younger than me, but perhaps even under 30 years old. So as we round up the Minnesota sports scene, I’m going to start by assigning those potential young whippersnappers a bit of homework: this is the Eric Fox Game.
The quick summary: riding high as World Series champions, the Twins took a three-game AL West lead into a home series with Oakland in late July of 1992. Unfortunately, Minnesota got swept, including losing the third game 5-4 when a little-used outfielder named Eric Fox hit a three-run, ninth-inning homer.
The Twins never recovered, going comprehensively in the tank, finishing half a dozen games out of first… and it was a straight line from there to near-contraction five years later.
Why are we talking about Eric Fox, of all people? I mention him because ever since then, it’s been tempting to look at small moments throughout any season and wonder, “Hey, maybe this is his / their Eric Fox Game, the thing that changes everything.”
Saturday’s Twins game was like that for Carlos Correa. The Twins shortstop has been worse than a league-average hitter, the worst hitter on the team in terms of Win Probability Added, and so his eighth-inning grand slam felt like it very well could be an inflection point - both for him, the struggling hitter, and for the Twins, the team that seemingly couldn’t hit with the bases loaded.
It was a perfect setup, after that home run - win Friday, win Saturday, five-run lead Sunday - and then Correa swept across second base, about to turn the double play that would let the Twins escape the fifth inning with a 6-1 lead, and darted his throw into the dirt at first base. A run scored, then Matt Chapman hit a homer to make it 6-4.
All of which would have been fine, except it set the stage for another one of Rocco Badelli’s fits of belief in Emilio Pagán. Pagán, who is a fine pitcher as long as there’s no possibility of blowing a lead, was given the eighth inning with the Twins still leading by two, and did what he does - single, single, home run, Twins down 7-6 before he’s even managed to get an out.
Putting Pagán into a close game is like opening a creaky, dark door in a horror movie - everybody watching knows it’s a bad idea, but they’re powerless to stop it.
It put a damper on what was otherwise a fine weekend for the Twins in Toronto. They won an extra-inning game, for one, and then they scored more than two runs in back-to-back games, which probably qualifies for fans to meet their return flight at the airport, at this point of the season.
Anyway, we can only hope that Correa is about to turn it on. He hit two doubles on Sunday. He got five hits and two walks in 14 trips to the plate in Toronto. This qualifies, well, as “more like it.”
In the next province over, Minnesota United got hammered in Montréal, losing 4-0.
It’s another weird one! I know that xG isn’t completely predictive on a one-game basis, much as we’d all like it to be (just think of the number of coaches who sometimes cite expected goals as a justification that it was the forces of luck and fate that did their team in), but when the Loons keep on winning the xG battle and dropping points, you have to think something’s up.
If you go by the numbers at American Soccer Analysis, this was the sixth time in the last seven games that the Loons have had better xG numbers, and yet in those six games, the Loons have earned five points.
I suppose that the best explanation for this is finishing. Mender García officially has Hunou Syndrome, where you start to wonder if maybe he’d be better off trying to miss, because then he’d screw up and actually score. The Loons officially sold Luis Amarilla to Mazatlán FC this week, which is actually pretty good business, whatever the transfer fee - but also maybe makes you wonder about the Mazatlán scouting department.
Teemu Pukki can’t get here fast enough.
On the flip side, we still have to wonder about Dayne St. Clair. We’re halfway through the season, and I can’t find any numbers that don’t rate him as the worst regular keeper in MLS (and believe me, I’ve tried). Maybe there are just random outliers in the data sets that will work themselves out, but I think it’s fair to say that St. Clair’s not exactly winning them matches right now.
The Lynx split a pair of weekend games, with the win coming Sunday against Los Angeles. Napheesa Collier led Minnesota with 24 points, but it was Bridget Carleton who was the heroine, drilling two threes in the final 1:10 to turn a two-point deficit into a four-point lead.
Minnesota’s 2-7 now. If they’re tanking, they’re still doing it right - Friday’s loss was to Indiana, just the Fever’s second win of the year. On the flip side, they’re not exactly out of the playoff race already - Atlanta, the current 8th seed, is 2-5.
It does feel like there are three good teams in the WNBA (Las Vegas, Connecticut, New York), three or four middling teams, and then a group of maybe five teams who could all end up on the bottom of the standings.
The Saints lost twice over the weekend, including a painful loss Friday when they led 5-2 in the ninth and ended up losing 7-5. But Joey Gallo did hit two homers over the weekend (and struck out twice, because he’s Joey Gallo), and Kenta Maeda was sharp on Saturday, striking out five in four innings and allowing zero runs.
Also, Gilberto Celestino made his Triple-A debut for the season on Sunday, walking three times and going 0-2 to give him the strange slash line of .000 / .600 / .000.
In USL action, one team went forwards and one went backwards. Minnesota Aurora FC won again, and remains undefeated and untied at the halfway mark of the season.
It’s still unreal that the Aurora, in one and a half seasons, has tied once (opening day 2022) and lost once (championship game 2022) and has otherwise won every game they’ve ever played.
On the other end of the spectrum, Minneapolis City lost 5-1 at home to Rochester FC. The Crows are in sixth place in the seven-team Deep North division of USL League Two, and have to be feeling realistic about their chances this year.
Also in the lower divisions, Minnesota United 2 got waxed 4-1 at home by Houston Dynamo 2.
Monday’s another one of those “no sports in Minnesota” days. I suppose this is due to fact that the Saints have only one Monday game the entire year, it’s not a big day for soccer, and every one of the Twins’ off days this year is on a Monday or a Thursday.
Still, a good night for calm, and to review everything about your life, to see where the Eric Foxes might lurk.