We’re nearly two weeks into this World Cup and almost done with the second go-around of the group stage, and it’s becoming clear that one of the stories of this World Cup is how, well, forgiving it is.

The tournament expanded to 48 teams this time around, and FIFA blithely threw in an extra round of knockout games as well. It meant that “getting out of the group,” the usual goal of so many second-tier teams at the World Cup (including, if we’re honest, all three hosts), became the absolute bare minimum for most. And as it turns out, getting out of the group will probably require not much more than one good evening.

According to projections from the great Michael Caley, four points is all but guaranteed to make the knockout round, and teams that end the group stage with three points and an even or positive goal difference currently have a 98% chance of moving on. A team with three points has to get down to a -5 goal difference before its chances of being one of the eight best third-place teams drops down under 50%.

The one caveat is that a change to the tiebreakers has also upended the normal flow of the group stage. Previously, the tiebreaker was always goal difference; this year, head-to-head results are the first tiebreaker. This means, for example, that the USA has already won Group D, having beaten Paraguay and Australia. And it’s already eliminated zero-pointers Türkiye, Haiti, and Tunisia, all of which have lost to the only teams they could catch on points.

Importantly, though, the probabilities mean good things for what is quickly becoming everyone’s second-favorite team at the World Cup: Cape Verde!

I invite you to watch this clip, of a BBC reporter who was interviewing a Cape Verde fan when the Blue Sharks scored their first-ever World Cup goal, and not feel genuine joy.

(It certainly beats JP Dellacamera’s call on FOX, which was, and I’m quoting here, “Whoa.”)

Forget the teams (Mexico, USA, Germany) that have already won their respective groups; you could make an argument that Cape Verde (draw with Spain, draw with Uruguay) is having the most impressive World Cup of any country. The nation is one of four debutantes at this tournament; they’re not the lowest-ranked, but they are, at best, in a tie with Curaçao in last place in the “countries that it’s easy to find on the map” rankings.

In a normal year, they might be headed for a result that I’ll always think of as The New Zealand: out in the group stage without losing a game. But, as Caley’s projections show, three points and an even goal difference will almost certainly send Cape Verde through to the next phase. Obviously, if they can beat Saudi Arabia, they’ll be in, but even a draw might be enough. Come on, Cape Verde!

Speaking of New Zealand, we haven’t mentioned much about the Loons at the World Cup yet, because so far it hasn’t been much of a trip. New Zealand and Michael Boxall lost last night, a come-from-ahead 3-1 drubbing by Egypt, and the Kiwis are rather in danger of being one of the teams that misses out on the knockout round. All they have left is Belgium, still perhaps the best team in Group G - and Belgium too needs a win to be assured of moving on. The Red Devils haven’t exactly showed an ability to put a foot on the gas pedal, but still, you’d have to say that Boxy and company are the underdogs.

Panama, and Carlos Harvey, are still waiting to play game two, but game one qualified as one of the more disappointing results of the tourney for anyone. Ghana is one of the lowest-ranked teams in the tournament, but they scored in stoppage time to beat Panama, who is now facing matchups with Croatia and England and trying to figure out how they might make their way to three points.

Honestly, their best hope might be “England pounds Ghana, clinches the group, and plays their fitness staff in the final group game.”

I guess technically we should also talk about James Rodríguez and Colombia, in terms of “Loons at the World Cup,” but it’s been a month and already I’m doubting my memory that Rodríguez was ever a Loon. Are we sure that happened? Like he played in games and everything? This wasn’t just an Eidur Gudjohnsen situation where it was a possibility that never happened?