Minnesota United FC still has a chance for the NASL spring championship – admittedly, a small one, but still a chance.

Carolina drew 1-1 with Atlanta last night, the RailHawks’ first dropped points at home all of last year, leaving the door just slightly ajar for one of three other teams to slip through. San Antonio also won, 4-1 at home against Fort Lauderdale, so the standings right now have Carolina with 20 points, Atlanta with 18, and San Antonio with 17.

Minnesota can stay alive with a win today at Edmonton, which would give them 17 points going into the season’s final week. If they win today, they would need to beat Atlanta at home next week, and San Antonio would need to beat Carolina at home – which would leave Minnesota, Carolina, and San Antonio all level at 20 points apiece.

The first tiebreaker is goal difference, and United has problems there. Carolina is +6, San Antonio is +2, and Minnesota is at 0 for the season. In other words, Minnesota needs not only two wins, but two fairly comfortable wins; they’ll need to score at least five more goals than their opponents, possibly six, to win the title.

It’s possible. Maybe not likely, but possible. First things first, though – they have to beat Edmonton today.

Avoiding the “end-of-game chaos”

This week, Minnesota United put out a video tribute to captain Kyle Altman, who is retiring at the end of the spring season and going to medical school. First, though, they have a bigger concern – getting him back on the field.

Altman sprained his foot/ankle during the first half of last week’s loss at Carolina, and had to leave the game at halftime. “I tried to gut it out,” he said, “but at some point I felt like I hindering my team, and was more of a liability than an asset.”

According to the center back, he’s been in a walking boot all week, and has been doing work in the pool and by himself to try to get back. He’s in the travel squad for this week, but it’s up in the air as to whether he’ll play.

Head coach Manny Lagos mentioned Altman’s absence as a factor that led to two late Carolina goals last week. “I think there was a little bit of disjointedness that happens when you have your center back and captain go out,” said Lagos, who said this contributed to the “end-of-game chaos” in the 3-2 loss.

In two games this year, Minnesota allowed three goals to Carolina that came in the final ten minutes of the game, turning two potential wins into a draw and a loss. All three of those goals came from set pieces, and Lagos is as confused as anybody as to why that has happened. “Traditionally, we’ve been pretty darn good at them [defending set pieces], and this year at weird times we haven’t quite got what we needed to see the game out.”

“We do a pretty good job, I think, preparing and making sure [the players] are aware of their assignments,” said Lagos. “In that stress and fervor at the end of games, we have to make sure we’re organized and mentally sharp. Odd plays are going to happen, but we try to limit them, and we try to have that courage and intensity to try to keep from getting scored on.”

Certainly, the team could use Altman back – and certainly, he wants to be in the lineup, especially as his career winds down. “It would take a lot to keep me out of those last two games,” he said.

Quietly, it’s Taka time

I haven’t written much about Kentaro Takada in the past few weeks; the central midfielder doesn’t appear often on the scoresheet, or in the highlights. Under the radar, however, he’s played every minute of Minnesota’s last four league games, serving as a defensive midfielder, usually behind Bryan Arguez, who’s a little more adventurous offensively.

What Takada does do, however, is pretty much run from the opening kickoff to the final whistle. Said Lagos of Takada, who is in his fourth year in Minnesota, “You look at Taka, he’s consistent not only this year but over the years. He’s a really unique individual that has embraced what the club’s about. He is a unique person, because he’s not from this country, but he just wants to experience this culture and this environment.

“He dedicates himself both on and off the field, to contribute however possible. It’s that consistency and that dedication that comes out on the field in terms of the effort you see, in terms of the energy he puts forth to try to help the team win.”

Injury Report

Apart from Altman, the only other players of note who did not travel are center back Connor Tobin, who will be out until the fall season, and central midfielder Aaron Pitchkolan, who returned as a sub last week after a month out, but suffered a setback in midweek training this week. “Even in the game, he was playing through it a little bit,” said Lagos. “He’s a good pro, he was pushing himself.”

Wide midfielder Lucas Rodriguez is with the team in Edmonton this week, and he could return to the lineup as well to give Minnesota more of a two-way player on the wing. “I think we were missing some wide defending in that game [against Carolina],” said Lagos, “and Lucas can provide that.”

Though Lagos didn’t specify a lineup, the assumption might be that Rodriguez could supplant Miguel Ibarra in the lineup, as Ibarra has struggled mightily in his sophomore campaign.

Game details

It’s a rare Sunday afternoon game for Minnesota United, as they take on Edmonton at 3pm today. The game can be seen live on nasl.com; for the social among us, the team is holding a watch party at Brit’s Pub on Nicollet Mall, beginning at 2pm.

Minnesota United FC plays at Edmonton tomorrow afternoon at 3pm, about which more tomorrow. In the meantime, though, their chance at the spring league championship could be over by 8pm tonight.

Carolina and Atlanta kick off at 6pm tonight, in Carolina, and if the RailHawks win – potentially thanks to a late goal or two, which is becoming something of a Carolina specialty – they will clinch the league title. Minnesota needs an Atlanta win, or a draw, to stay mathematically alive.

Even if Atlanta does get a result, San Antonio – which kicks off in Fort Lauderdale at 6:30 – could put a damper on things, as well. Minnesota and San Antonio are tied in the standings, with Minnesota one goal ahead on goal differential; If the Scorpions put four or five past Fort Lauderdale and blow out the Strikers, United could have three teams to climb over in the standings, not two.

My gut feeling is that it’ll be over tonight. Carolina is perfect at home this year in the league, with five wins from five games; they even won all three of their home games in the US Open Cup, including two against Major League Soccer teams. Atlanta has been good, but not good enough that they’re the pick to break that deadlock.

It’s worth nothing, though, that even if the title race is over, there’s still something to play for. If the same team wins both the first and second half title this year, the championship game will be between that team and the team that has the most points across both halves of the season. So there is, in some ways, a second place to play for – but it’s definitely a consolation prize.

Both games will be live on nasl.com tonight, if you’re interested.

Minnesota United FC has given up a number of late goals this year – against Carolina twice, against Tampa Bay at home, even against Des Moines at home in the US Open Cup – and even central defender and team captain Kyle Altman is confused as to why. “It’s both baffling and beweildering at the same time,” he said. “I think it’s a little bit baffling right now why we haven’t been able to get consistent results, considering that we think we have a very talented team.”

United endured perhaps its most painful loss of the season last Saturday, giving up two late goals in two minutes to come away with no points in a game they led 2-0 after ten minutes. Perhaps the only other contender in that category was the aforementioned loss to Des Moines, and Altman identified one commonality between that and the two games against Carolina: giving up goals from set pieces.

Said Altman, “All three of the goals we gave up against Carolina this past weekend – one was a penalty, another one was a free kick that got cleared and we didn’t track the runners, and a third was off a corner kick. If you look at the two goals we conceded the time before that against Carolina, they were both from short corners. For some reason, this year more than any other year, set pieces have been an Achilles’ heel for us – that and giving up late goals.

“I think a lot of that comes down to mentality and focus, and not necessarily just with defending, because we were defending a lot in that second half. I think a lot of is has to do with how we close out games, not just in defending but how we can keep the ball, how we can possess, how we can give them something to worry about, so we can finish games more successfully. ”

As captain, Altman’s a team leader – but he says that, at times like this, changing the team’s results starts with introspectiveness, not with ranting and raving in the locker room. Said Altman, “The first thing you have to do is look at yourself, and look at what you can do better, and that’s the same recommendation that I would give to all the guys on the team: Look at yourself first, and try to figure out what you need to do to help the team.”

With two weeks to go, then, United’s between a rock and a hard place. They need two wins for a shot at the spring championship – anything else will leave them short – and to get some help from other results around the league. According to Altman, though, the team has yet to degenerate into finger-pointing or negative moods. “There’s a lot of positive energy, actually, because guys really want to figure this out,” he said. “I think guys really want to get out there and put two really good performances to finish out the season.

“We have to focus on what we can control – and that’s to pick up six points.”

Carolina’s Brian Shriver scored twice with less than ten minutes to go, sending Minnesota to a 3-2 defeat on the road – and likely ending United’s chance to win the NASL spring season.

With 84 minutes played, it was all going United’s way. Minnesota had scored twice in the first ten minutes, with Simone Bracalello and Pablo Campos banging in perhaps the team’s two best goals of the season, and though Floyd Franks had pulled one back from the penalty spot for Carolina midway through the first half, all United had to do was hold on. League leaders Atlanta were even doing their part, having gone behind 2-0 against Tampa Bay. As it stood, Minnesota was going to lead the league, tied with Atlanta on 17 points, one ahead of Carolina with two to play. With a home game against Atlanta left, United was going to be the favorites for the league championship.

But then Shriver scored, and two minutes later scored again – and Minnesota went from the middle of the title picture, to the outside looking in.

It’s the second time this year that United has dropped points late against the RailHawks. In Minnesota, they led 2-1, but a goal in the 84th minute tied the game. This time, it was the 86th and 88th minute. Six points for Minnesota turned into one, all in the closing stages.

Minnesota will rue a few missed chances. Bracalello hit the crossbar with an overhead kick, for one, and with twenty minutes to go, Carolina defender Jordan Graye scythed Miguel Ibarra down in the box. Though Graye may have got the ball, penalties have been given for less. RailHawks beat writer Neil Morris described it on Twitter as 50/50, which was probably fair, but given that Carolina’s first-half penalty was similarly 50/50, it was slightly surprising to see the referee wave Ibarra’s claim off.

That said, Carolina certainly had the run of play for most of the game – really all but the first 20 minutes. “We deserved to win that game,” head coach Colin Clarke told the broadcast afterwards. Minnesota chose to try to hold on to their lead for most of the second half, and in the end it came back to burn them.

With two games to go, then, Minnesota has fallen to fourth in the standings (possibly fifth, depending on the result between San Antonio and Edmonton tonight), and would need a miracle to climb back to the top. They have to win their following two games, at Edmonton and and home against Atlanta, and then need one of the following two things to happen:

1. Carolina and Atlanta draw next week, then Carolina loses at San Antonio the following week.
2. Atlanta beats Carolina next week, and Carolina draws or loses at San Antonio the following week.

Even then, Minnesota would probably have to overturn a goal difference deficit. United’s scored the same number of goals as they have allowed, but Atlanta is +2 and Carolina is +6.

For United, it’s a heartbreaking loss – and, barring something amazing, the end of their spring championship hopes.

Minnesota United FC head coach Manny Lagos refused to say that tonight’s game at Carolina is a must-win game, given that the standings are tightly compressed enough that anything could happen. “There’s a lot of parity in our league,” he said, “but we know the importance in the game. It has a lot of ramifications. I don’t think you can go to that extreme [of calling it a must-win], but I don’t think you can make light that it’s a big game.”

With three games to play, United is third in the NASL standings with 14 points, two behind Carolina and three behind Atlanta. Minnesota plays both teams in the next three weeks, so technically they control their own destiny – but in order to stay in control, they need wins, not draws, and certainly not losses.

On the bright side for Minnesota, they have a number of players who have been through the playoff wars the past two seasons, when the team made the championship finals, both years as the playoffs’ lowest seed. “It’s a little different because it’s a league game rather than a playoff game,” said Lagos. “But we have a lot of guys that are the same core of guys that stepped up in big moments over the past couple of years, and I would like to think that they would be ready for the game this weekend. ”

Two years ago, Minnesota defeated Carolina on penalties in a playoff game at WakeMed Soccer Park, the RailHawks’ home field. Those who were part of that game should probably draw on that memory of winning a big game at Carolina – without remembering that they lost 4-3 that day, but went to penalties on aggregate, thanks to Minnesota’s 1-0 win in the first leg.

The helpfulness of the bye week

United has had two weeks to heal up after a bruising win over Fort Lauderdale – and they’re getting closer to having a full squad to choose from.

Midfielder Aaron Pitchkolan and striker Etienne Barbara are available tonight, having made the trip to Carolina. So too is winger Miguel Ibarra, who suffered a bruised knee two weeks ago but has recovered enough to be part of the squad.

Still missing is center back Connor Tobin, who will be out another 3-6 weeks with an ankle injury, according to Lagos. Goalkeeper Daryl Sattler, who has been dealing with a groin injury for several weeks, also did not travel, putting a damper on any possible goalkeeping controversy. Matt Van Oekel will get the start again tonight, backed up by Mitch Hildebrant.

For so long, injuries have been hanging over Minnesota’s heads, forcing an uphill fight. At this point, though, the injury report can’t be used as an excuse.

Game details

Tonight’s game is at 6:00 pm Central time, and can be seen at NASL.com. If you’re in a more social mood, the team is holding a watch party at the Nomad World Pub in Minneapolis.

For more on tonight’s game, David La Vaque’s game preview for the paper is here.