Minnesota’s sports feel very familiar, at the moment. The Vikings missed the playoffs, and the only thing fans can’t quite decide is whether everyone involved should be drawn and quartered, or merely fired. The Wolves are inconsistent. The Wild were briefly the NHL’s top team, and have lost five in a row since, returning to their usual state of mild, basic competence.

With the present so unexciting and the past mostly barren, it’s understandable that fans get excited about the future - and right now, Minnesota’s teams do seem to have a bumper crop of hope. The Lynx have Napheesa Collier and Crystal Dangerfield, the 2019 and 2020 Rookies of the Year. The Wild have Kirill Kaprizov, who won the Calder Trophy in 2021. The Wolves have Anthony Edwards, who should have won Rookie of the Year in 2021. The Vikings have Justin Jefferson, who was on the 2020 NFL All-Rookie Team. Even the Twins have a passel of prospects that, increasingly, seem like they’ll have to shoulder the load next year - you know, if baseball plays any games in 2022.

And then there is Minnesota United.

When making these “Minnesota’s youth movement” lists, Emanuel Reynoso’s name occasionally pops up, but Bebelo turned 26 in November. This makes him young, for the Loons, but comparatively old; he’s one day younger than Karl-Anthony Towns, for example. And soccer is not like baseball, where most players need several years of professional experience before being ready for the big leagues, where 25 is still quite young. Soccer is a young man’s game. Major League Soccer made two major player sales this week; Orlando City sold Daryl Dike to West Brom for $9.5 million, and FC Dallas sold Ricardo Pepi to Augsburg for $20 million. Dike is 21, Pepi is 18.

The Loons have none of that type of teenage star. Every year, MLSSoccer.com does a list of the league’s best players called 22 Under 22. The league even has an entire “U22 Initiative”, with special roster designations and statuses, all designed to bring more young players through the league (and, potentially, turn them into players that can be sold, the same way as Dike and Pepi.)

Here is the Loons’ entire list of U22 players from last season, along with the number of minutes they played:

There is one player to highlight, though - not in that U22 group, but younger than Reynoso. He didn’t make the MLS 22 Under 22 list in either year he was eligible, but while other players got the hype, he was getting minutes, and now, he’s become a key piece of Minnesota’s plans: Hassani Dotson.

Dotson joined the Loons out of Oregon State in 2019, a second-round pick in the MLS SuperDraft. If you’re not an MLS fan, that probably sounds better than it is; a second-round pick in most other sports is a key prospect, a piece for the future. In MLS, a second-round pick is “a guy who will almost surely never play for your team.” Mostly, you don’t bother to learn the names of the second-round picks.

Confounding expectations, Dotson was immediately thrown into the mix for the Loons, and in the starting lineup by May. Since then, his role has been to provide depth at seemingly every position on the field. In 2021, he started games at left back, right back, defensive midfield (6), central midfield (8), attacking midfield (10), and at both left and right wing - seven out of the eleven positions in the Loons’ preferred 4-2-3-1.

Here’s a list of the United players who’ve played the most minutes over the past three seasons:

That speaks to how important Dotson is already for the Loons - without a set position, he’s still played the fifth-most minutes for the team over his career.

With Greguš and Alonso departing, however, it does seem like it may be time for Dotson to take a step forward, at the age of 24. If the season started today, he’d be a starting midfielder, the place that he appears to be most comfortable on the field. He’s been fine as a fullback, less so as a winger, but that number 8 spot seems like it fits his particular skillset the best.

Plus, it gives him a chance of adding to his “Bangers Only” tally.

He doesn’t have the trophies of Collier or Dangerfield or Kaprizov or Jefferson, or the highlight reel of Edwards. But as Minnesotans latch on to any hope they can find, I’ve got hope for a breakout season from Dotson - still young! - in 2022.

Minnesota United FC preseason begins in ten days.

It’s hard to believe, for a number of reasons. For one, it’s below zero outside, and it’s hard to think about summer and grass and all of those American fútbol things in the bleak midwinter. For another, the Loons are pretty short on players; so far this offseason, they’ve declined a lot of contract options, lost free agents Ethan Finlay and Ozzie Alonso, and picked up a third-string keeper with one MLS game to his name.

Even so, there’s only eight weeks - eight weeks! - until MNUFC opens the season in Philadelphia. And while there is much still up in the air with this team, there is one extremely key thing up in the air: what is going on with playmaker Emanuel Reynoso?

In early December, Reynoso was accused of pistol-whipping a teenager in his native Argentina. He spent nine days in jail before being allowed to post bail. He’s since requested to be allowed to leave Argentina for MNUFC preseason, but as of late December, was still in his native country.

MNUFC has made no statement beyond “we are taking this matter seriously.” They are letting the process, such as it is, play out; until the authorities in Argentina make their findings, we’re all just waiting, apparently Reynoso included.

Last August, there was a minor kerfuffle among MNUFC fans when Finlay, on Michael Rand’s “Daily Delivery” podcast for the Star Tribune, said that he wasn’t sure what the team’s identity was beyond getting the ball to Reynoso and letting him do his thing.

Left unsaid was the truth, which is that “getting the ball to Reynoso and letting him do his thing” was not a terrible identity. No less an authority than MLSSoccer.com’s Matt Doyle called Reynoso “a genius No. 10” and “maybe my favorite player in the league.”

With Reynoso, the offensive plan is to find three willing runners that can finish to surround him on offense, and six competent defense-first players to cover for a front four that’s constantly on the other end of the field (and, let’s be honest, not exactly tracking back). Fans can fill in those names pretty easily because, for much of the last two years, that’s exactly what we’ve seen.

Without Reynoso, though, the plan becomes - what? When they were missing him last year, especially in the second half of the season, things did not go well:

• at DC United: The Loons came out in a 5-2-3, with the intention of defending with seven and letting the front three play three-on-three as DC pushed up. Minnesota seemed to lose every 50-50 ball and only scored off a set piece; it was a total beatdown, 3-1 that didn’t feel near that close.
• at Sporting KC: This was the “maybe Adrien Hunou can work as a second striker, while Fanendo Adi is a target man” attempt. The Loons were also missing Hassani Dotson and Chase Gasper, they kept making crazy mistakes with the ball, and they got beat 4-0.
• at Seattle: This was probably the most straightforward game Minnesota played without Reynoso, as they simply inserted Hassani Dotson into central midfield and left everything else alone. The Loons lost 1-0 but had their chances, and could have earned a point.
• at Houston: The Loons won this one, 2-1. Taking anything away from that is difficult because it was Houston’s 15th consecutive game without a win, and they felt bad enough about it to fire their GM afterwards.

The Loons do not have a Plan A and a Plan B, based on Reynoso’s availability. Reynoso is Plan A, but beyond that, I’m not sure you can even say they’re back to the drawing board; it’s more like “Well, we should really think about getting a board for drawing on.”

With him, they keep it simple, get the ball to him, and let him do his thing. Without him, they either try Dotson as a half-replacement, or have to come up with an entirely different way of playing.

Ten days to go until preseason.

Now-former MNUFC winger Ethan Finlay, a free agent this offseason, has signed a two-year deal with Austin FC.

Finlay, who hit 31 in August, is one of those “solid career” type of MLS guys. Though he was born in Duluth, he grew up in North Carolina and then Marshfield, Wisconsin. He was driven enough that, when his parents opted to move to Marshfield when he was 12, he informed them that they were killing his soccer career.

Marshfield not being a soccer hotbed, Finlay would play on teams in Madison (145 miles away) and then in Milwaukee (191 miles), and it was enough to earn him a spot at Creighton University. You wouldn’t think that Omaha would be a soccer hotbed, either, but Creighton has been a consistent source of soccer talent, and a landing spot for Midwestern guys; Twin Cities natives Brent Kallman and Eric Miller both launched MLS careers from Creighton. And it worked for Finlay, who became a Hermann Trophy finalist and a top-10 MLS draft pick for Columbus.

In Columbus, Finlay had a breakout season in his third year, scoring 11 goals. The next year, in 2015, he was even better, scoring 12 and setting up 12 more as the Crew reached the MLS Cup final. He was an All-Star that year, and named to the league’s Best XI at the end of the year. When he re-signed with Columbus that winter, the announcement called him an “ascendant star” and noted that only Robbie Keane and Bradley Wright-Phillips had more combined goals and assists over the past two seasons. It even earned him a couple of call-ups to the U.S. national team, both in the annual January camp that winter and then for World Cup qualifiers in March, where he played 20 minutes in a win over Guatemala.

And then, well, things went wrong for Columbus, and Finlay. He scored six goals and set up six more, but the Crew missed the playoffs, and in 2017 he’d managed just a goal and assist in 19 games. Columbus signed another right winger, Pedro Santos, as a Designated Player, and the writing was on the wall; the Crew dealt Finlay at the deadline to Minnesota for a chunk of cash.

This was in the middle of Minnesota’s first MLS season, and by this point it was clear that the Loons were going to have to do a certain amount of switching boats in midstream. At the time, Finlay was approximately the tenth winger on the Loons’ roster, but after the team’s repeated face-plants to begin the year, they were on the search for talent of any kind.

Twenty-seven different players started at least one game for the Loons that year, and the kindest label you could apply to a lot of them was “inconsistent.” Minnesota built its inaugural squad with a few guys from their successful NASL sides, a few MLS veterans, a few MLS up-and-comers, and - oddly - a group of fairly unknown internationals from Nordic countries, on the theory that they could be easily convinced to play on the frozen tundra. It was the last group that particularly did not click; three of the four were back in Europe by mid-summer, and the Loons were rebuilding on the fly.

What Finlay brought to the Loons, then and over the following four years, was professionalism. He was the template for the guys that eventually turned Minnesota into a team that made the playoffs three years in a row: solid pros.

He turned 31 this year, and scored his 50th goal in MLS. He was not part of United’s first-choice attacking front four, and yet, paradoxically, he played more matches in 2021 than any of the first-choice players, starting 19 - the same as Franco Fragapane, two fewer than Robin Lod, and three fewer than Adrian Hunou.

His ability to play on the right wing was what gave the team any attacking flexibility at all. He would play on the right of Hunou or Lod, or would come in as a substitute for Hunou while Lod switched from the right to playing up front. He ran the hard yards without being an offensive focal point, always in the channel between the left center back and the left back, trying to stretch the defense. No longer an ascendant star, he’d become something that is also important to winning soccer teams: reliable.

Constructing a first eleven is one thing, for an MLS team. The realm of Designated Players and Allocation Money is spent to try to find those players that are a cut above the rest, that can provide more than just dependability. But to win, every team needs to find guys like Finlay, that can start and can back up and be dependable in both roles.

Minnesota has its starting lineup already filled out for next season, mostly. Ten of the eleven guys that started the playoff game with Portland are signed for next season, as well as first-choice goalkeeper Tyler Miller; only veteran Ozzie Alonso is still a free agent. But the depth on the roster - the guys like Finlay - is mostly missing. If the Loons are going to win next year, if they are going to weather injuries and try different lineup combinations and do all the things that good teams do on the way to the playoffs - they need to find more Finlays to make it work.

Leaving aside that current starting eleven (Miller; Métanire, Dibassy, Boxall, Gasper; Dotson, Trapp; Reynoso, Fragapane, Lod, Hunou) and backup keeper Dayne St. Clair, here’s who Minnesota has backing up.

Striker: Patrick Weah is out with an ACL injury, so right now all the Loons have is youngster Aziel Jackson, who may not even be a number 9.

Winger: The Loons were high enough on Niko Hansen that he made five starts early in the season, before injuries derailed his year. Right now, he’s in line to replace Finlay; young Justin McMaster is the only other forward held over from 2021.

Midfield: The one issue with Hassani Dotson being in the starting lineup is that he can’t provide cover at every other position on the field if he’s already in the starting eleven; he’s first in line to play every midfield position, both fullback positions, and both wing positions if need be. Other than him, the Loons have no backup number 10. Joseph Rosales showed promise in central midfield at a young age. Jacori Hayes was a depth option last year, and ended up making seven starts.

Defense: DJ Taylor played both fullback spots. Callum Montgomery and Nabi Kibunguchy played center back in the USL. Fred Emmings is a homegrown goalkeeper.

That, right now, is MNUFC’s depth. Three mid-20s guys who were spot starters last year, two young players who didn’t make a start, two Homegrown players (one injured), and three guys who played in the USL.

They need more. They know they need more. And the type of guys they need are like Ethan Finlay: solid pros who will do a job.

Art and commerce have always been linked. Sports, and the business of sports, are inseparable. For sports fans like me, this produces two dichotomies.

1. Understanding the business side of sports is crucial to understanding sports, and yet this understanding does not make me enjoy sports any more - in fact, if anything, the more I understand, the less I enjoy.
2. The most important and enjoyable figures in sports are the players, but even a basic understanding of the economic realities of any sport serve to align my incentives as a fan with the owners, not with the players.

Let’s look at the latest local example, the Minnesota Twins signing Byron Buxton to a seven-year contract, to illustrate what I mean.

Watching Byron Buxton play baseball is an enjoyable experience, both aesthetically, and as a rooting interest. He plays for my favorite baseball team, and he is one of the most exciting players I can remember. He may be the fastest player in the league. Over the past two seasons, he hit thirty-two home runs and twenty-six doubles in just one hundred games. He’s about to turn twenty-eight years old, the prime for most baseball players. He helps my team win games and he is fun to watch. I want him to stay on my team and I wish the team had twenty-five more players like him.

Considered narrowly, I am entirely and completely on Byron Buxton’s side, when it comes to his contract negotiations. I really don’t care how much money he gets paid; if he signs for a thousand dollars or a billion, it doesn’t make any difference to me, as long as he continues to play baseball for the Twins. Nothing changes in the money that comes out of my pocket. If he wants to get paid more, then I say he should get paid more.

Widen the scope, even to the still fairly narrow scope of the contracts of all of the other players on the team, and that view begins to change. Even at this narrow level, I understand that the team’s goal overall is to maximize the number of good baseball players it puts on the field, and that one of the limits on this is financial.

At this still-narrow view, my incentives have already stopped lining up with Byron Buxton’s. I want the Twins to not only have Byron Buxton but also have many other good players. Even when I get to the end of the above paragraph, where I wish for twenty-five more Byron Buxtons, I understand that the Twins will not be able to sign twenty-five more players to seven-year contracts worth nine-figure sums.

More than that, if I want to understand anything about the team as a whole - the players that they sign, and choose not to sign, and try to sign but fail - I have to understand far more than just that basic “money doesn’t grow on trees, son” truth. I have to understand not only the benefits but the risks of this contract, like Buxton is often hurt, and in the next 2-5 years his physical gifts will begin to diminish. Already I like him less! This sucks!

A large part, perhaps the largest part, of “analysis” of sports is occupied with these kinds of questions. The on-field and on-court and on-ice breakdowns are still there, but they are often swamped by management role-playing. What are the Vikings’ needs in the draft? Can the Wild trade for Jack Eichel and stay under the salary cap? Which expiring contracts might the Timberwolves target?

Thinking about sports in this way is interesting, even enjoyable, on its own. It certainly adds an intellectually satisfying puzzle on top of the basic experience of watching a bunch of people in colorful costumes run into each other. It’s fun to decipher the complicated systems that underpin the economic calculus that governs what happens out there between the lines. The on-field and the off-field parts all fit together as parts of a larger whole.

This doesn’t make it more enjoyable, though, at least not for me. The only enjoyment that it’s possible to derive from this is when a player is underpaid, in the same way I would say, “Wow, that burrito was great, I can’t believe it only cost three dollars.” Wild center Ryan Hartman has scored twelve goals in twenty-one games this season, an astonishing return for the team’s eighth-highest-paid forward. Great deal for the Wild! Terrible deal for Hartman! Because my incentives (to have many good players on the team, given the salary cap) match up with the front office’s incentives, not Hartman’s, I guess I can feel good about this? “Boy,” I can say, “the Wild sure got one over on the rest of the NHL, by paying less than the market value for this player!”

This feels instinctive, yet morally bereft. Hartman’s the one out there scoring goals, not GM Bill Guerin or owner Craig Leipold. I’m cheering for Hartman, not the salary cap. And yet it feels right to be even more satisfied with those goals, because I understand just what an extra benefit they provide to the team, because I understand the salary-cap portion of this particular puzzle. It’s even worse when salaries aren’t involved; caring about this sort of thing with college sports means being dunked into the sordid world of recruiting. If you think having opinions on other people’s paychecks feels soulless, imagine having opinions on the scholastic choices of teenagers.

I have never truly cared about a sports team without wanting to understand the big picture. At least for me, fandom doesn’t stop and start when the game does; I want to know more and go deeper. Otherwise, the experience is enjoyable but empty. Muzak, not Mozart.

Filling in the business side of the team fills in my need to understand. For me, though, understanding more means enjoying less.

Art and commerce, always at odds.

The MLS playoffs feel bizarre sometimes. The Loons played 34 games from mid-April to mid-November. They didn’t have their spot in the playoffs confirmed until the final whistle blew in game number 34. And now, two weeks after the conclusion to that very long season, they played a little bit of good soccer but a larger bit of bad soccer — and wham, season’s over. That’s an awfully long season to have the postseason be over after 90 minutes.

So what comes next for Minnesota United?

The Loons have until Wednesday to extend contract offers to anybody who’s out of contract. They have until the Tuesday following that to exercise any contact options. Here’s a list of players that are eligible for free agency (five years of MLS service and at least 24 years old), or are listed as out of contract on (the admittedly imperfect source) Transfrmarkt:

Updates 12/1/2021: MNUFC announced its end-of-season roster moves. This list and post were updated to clarify that Jacori Hayes was not out of contract, that Ján Greguš had a team option instead of being out of contract, and that Noah Billingsley, Nabi Kibunguchy, Callum Montgomery, and DJ Taylor had team options.

Here’s where that leaves the various units of the squad:

Keeper: Tyler Miller reclaimed his starting spot this year and is the favorite to be between the pipes for the 2022 kickoff. St. Clair could be facing a crossroads in his career; he burst onto the scene at the end of 2020 when Miller got hurt, but took the fall for the Loons’ four-game season-opening losing streak. Zendejas has been the depth option all season.

Youngsters: Seventeen-year-old Fred Emmings is the hometown kid, but is he ready for more?

Defense: Boxall is 33, Bakaye Dibassy is 32, and right back Romain Métanire will be 32 early in the 2022 season. Even Kallman, who I forever imagine is 22 years old and Brian Kallman’s little brother, turned 31 this year. That’s kind of an old group! Even so, I am assuming that Boxall and Kallman will both have their options picked up, given their performances. (UPDATE, thanks to Dan Wade: Boxall signed a new contract and the MLSPA didn’t seem to know about it.)

Chase Gasper is the left back for now and the future, but the backup spots are in flux. D.J. Taylor started six times this year, but by the end of the season, utilityman Hassani Dotson was filling in as a fullback instead of Taylor (or Jukka Raitala).

Youngsters: Soon-to-be 24-year-old Nabi Kibungunchy started 13 times for USL Sacramento this season; 24-year-old Callum Montgomery made 12 starts for San Diego in the same league, playing left back and left center back. 2020 draft pick Noah Billingsley only made one start this year for Phoenix in the USL.

Midfield: Alonso is out of contract (and 36 years old). Ján Greguš is not going to be re-signed, at least not as a Designated Player. Jacori Hayes is out of contract, too. That leaves Trapp - who led the team in minutes, and who I assume will be back - and Dotson as potential candidates to man the midfield. Reinforcements are likely needed.

Youngsters: 21-year-old Joseph Rosales was impressive in limited time in the second half of the year.

Attack: The front four of Adrien Hunou, Franco Fragapane, Emanuel Reynoso, and Robin Lod seems set, but behind them is (sound of wind whistling through trees). Finlay is a free agent, leaving Niko Hansen as first in line to back up on the wings. It’s kind of hard to believe that Adi or Agudelo would return, except perhaps as deep depth options.

The big news up front is that the Loons are reportedly close to signing 21-year-old Brazilian standout Rafael Navarro. Navarro’s 14 goals led Botafogo this year, boosting them to the top of Serie B and back to the top flight in Brazil.

Youngsters: McMaster (22) made seven appearances as a sub on the wings for the Loons, earning a single assist - if he comes back, he could be in line for a larger role. Aziel Jackson, now 20, got some minutes at forward for third-division North Carolina this year; Patrick Weah, about to turn 18, played twice for the Loons and seven times for Sacramento.

Overall

Overall, the squad seems a little thin for next season. The team’s first-choice starting XI will be back, with the possible exception of Alonso, depending on whether he’s first-choice in your book. But as with most MLS squads, the first-choice eleven isn’t necessarily the problem - it’s the depth behind that first string that can cause issues.

Manager Adrian Heath, at least, was optimistic after the playoff loss. “Certainly this is the best group we’ve had since I’ve been here,” he said, though he also used the word “inconsistent” to describe his team across the season.

Heath described something less than a total rebuild as his offseason plan. “If we can add to [the team], which is going to be the objective in the offseason, to add one or two pieces with it, make us stronger in certain areas, then that’s what we’re going to do,” he said.

So what’s next for Minnesota United FC? At the moment, what’s next appears to be more of the same.

Local soccer genius Bruce McGuire put out a call yesterday for votes for Minnesota United season awards - pre-playoffs but post-season. I cast my votes, but I thought I’d expand on them here.

Most Valuable Player: The easy pick here, of course, would be Emanuel Reynoso. He is the team’s best player, certainly; when he’s really on, he might be the best player in the whole league.

That said, I still remember the Loons teams that conceded 70+ goals two years running. The (sadly) now-departed Ike Opara won MLS Defensive Player of the Year merely for stabilizing that ship, but since concussions drove him out of the league, it’s been down to Michael Boxall and Bakaye Dibassy to step in at center back. Which is not to discount the performances of Roman Métanire and Chase Gasper at fullback, either, nor of Brent Kallman, who started 13 games at center back. They helped give the Loons what was, again, one of the stingiest defenses in the league.

I could have picked any of the back four - back five? - but Dibassy seemed like the steadiest this year.

Attacker of the Year: Reynoso.

Midfielder of the Year: Ozzie Alonso. This probably isn’t fair to Wil Trapp, who led the team in minutes played and was a steady force all season in the center of the field. Alonso made just 15 starts, but I’ll give you a stat: in those 15 games, the team gave up 15 goals. In the 19 he didn’t start, they allowed 29.

Defender of the Year: Dibassy.

Newcomer of the Year: Franco Fragapane. This was an easy call. The Argentinan scored five goals and set up nine more, and was up there with Reynoso in terms of creating offense. The team did not start to roll until Fragapane arrived to play the left wing. We speak of Kevin Molino’s 2020 season in hushed tones, and after Molino departed, there were no good options on the left. The Loons tried Hassani Dotson there (and learned he’s not a winger), they tried Reynoso there (and let’s be honest, he was never going to actually play as a wide forward), they even tried Ethan Finlay there (and he worked his socks off, God bless him, but he’s not as good on the left as he is on the right). That the team is in the playoffs is due as much to Fragapane’s quick acclimation to MLS as to anything else.

Young Player of the Year: Joseph Rosales. Assuming that this is only under-22 players, which is generally the league cutoff for Young, the Loons - who simply do not play young players - are down to exactly two choices. Rosales played 122 minutes, more than Patrick Weah’s 22 minutes, and impressed in limited time.

Comeback Player of the Year: Tyler Miller. After missing much of 2020 with an injury and losing his starting spot to begin the season, Miller came back after four season-opening losses to steady the goalkeeping ship. He was solid, if not spectacular, and tied the team record for clean sheets with 11 in 30 games. According to FBRef.com, Miller ended the year in seventh place among MLS goalkeepers, saving four goals more than expected.

As the U.S. Men’s National Team tries to carefully navigate its way through World Cup qualifying, there’s one thing that everyone - coaches, players, fans, TV pundits, internet pundits, me - keeps saying: A point on the road is a good result.

The reasoning is sound: a team that wins all its home games and draws all its road games will finish in the top three and qualify. (This is not a mathematical certainty, but it’d be utterly amazing if it didn’t happen.) And road games in CONCACAF are difficult; either you’re playing in the cauldron of Azteca Stadium, on ice planet Hoth in Canada, or in the uncomfortable environments of the Caribbean and Central America. So, as everyone keeps saying every time the USMNT draws a road game against a seemingly beatable opponent, a point on the road is a good result.

With this in mind, I wondered what the standings would look like if we awarded points solely based on this metric. So we award no points for a home win, minus-2 for a home draw, and minus-3 for a home loss; two points for an away win, zero points for an away draw, and minus-one for an away loss.

Here’s how the standings look so far. (Pts is number of points in the table so far. Mrg is the calculation that I mentioned above. Chalk is the number of points the team would finish with if it won its remaining home games and drew its remaining away games. Home is the number of home games remaining.)

The takeaways here:

As frustrating as the USMNT’s dropped points are, they come out of this comparison in okay shape. Ultimately, their loss in Panama will be the most frustrating, since at the moment Panama is the only team throwing a wrench in the North American dominance of this qualification tournament.

Things might not be as bad as they seem for Mexico, even after losing twice in this window. They lost what are likely to be their two most difficult away trips, but they still have four home games remaining, and their two away trips are to Jamaica and Honduras. It would not be entirely surprising to see Mexico end qualifying with six consecutive wins.

Canada, leading the standings and undefeated, comes out surprisingly badly in this comparison - mostly because they’ve already played five home games. That said, they’ve already earned road draws in the USA and Mexico; even with just two home games remaining, they might have the easiest schedule overall. It feels like they’re, like, one road win away from the World Cup, for the first time since 1986 (their only previous appearance).

Seven points for Jamaica from eight games is bad, there’s no way around it. But the Reggae Boyz also have four home games, and while one is against Mexico, the other three are Costa Rica, Honduras, and El Salvador. If they can pick up points on the road against Canada and Panama they could just drag themselves back into this race.

El Salvador and Honduras are done for.

Costa Rica has maybe the hardest remaining schedule, with a trip to Mexico and home games against the USA, Canada, and Panama. They aren’t that far out of the qualification picture, but it seems like their most likely role is causing frustration for one of the top four.

Please go to the ESPN college football standings page and scroll down. Notice anything that maybe you don’t see from other standings / tables / posiciones?

Every conference has two sets of standings: CONFERENCE and OVERALL. Look closer and you’ll see that the sorting of the standings is by the conference record. The overall record may be important for the handful of teams that are vying for the national championship and the spot in the College Football Playoff, but for most of the country the conference record is tracking the team’s actual progress - towards the conference championship, or more commonly towards the division championship, at title which includes a spot in the conference championship game.

I mention this because last week, MLS released their format for 2022. Charlotte FC is joining the league next season, bringing MLS to 28 teams. Nashville SC is moving to the Western Conference so that there will be 14 teams in each conference, but the 34-game season is staying put. Each team will play home and away against the other 13 teams in its conference, and then play eight games against the opposite conference.

28 teams is a pretty awkward number for a league. Playing the traditional home-and-away double round robin would require 54 games, which is too many - but reducing that to a single round-robin leaves just 27 games, which is too few. Anyway, MLS had an Eastern Conference and a Western Conference even when the league was just 10 teams. But with 14 teams in each conference, the league is at the point where it is less a single league, and more like two.

If the league is going to break itself into two parts, I say they lean into it. I want to see two columns in the standings next year - one for CONFERENCE, one for OVERALL.

The overall standings can still determine playoff places and the overall Supporters Shield, but I want to see a Supporters Shield — a president’s trophy? A conference cup? The Wondo Trophy and the Valderamma Trophy? something, anyway (and the first person to suggest Legends and Leaders for this gets slapped upside the head) — awarded to the winner of each conference. Both conferences are playing a perfectly even double round-robin, so let’s give the winners something. These championships should also have berths in the CONCACAF Champions League. Should the trophy winners also get the top conference seed in the playoffs? Hey, you said it, not me, but I’m glad we’re talking about these things.

I don’t love geographic conferences, if I’m being honest. They’re annoyingly Eastern-centric, because half the United states population lives in the Eastern time zone; any benefits of reduced travel or convenience are all for those in the East. (Ask fans of the six Western Conference teams in the Central Time Zone how much they like repeated 9 or 9:30 pm starts for games on the West Coast; ask Nashville SC about travel, given that it’s now in a different conference from the five nearest MLS cities to central Tennessee.)

MLS is now at a point where it’s two regional leagues with some inter-league scheduling, though. And since we all know that the Supporters Shield is a great trophy, let’s have more. Name them what you will; award the original Supporters Shield the same way we always have, for tradition’s sake, if you must. But if we’re going to have these two regional conferences, they should matter for something more than just scheduling.

Monday, I tweeted a note about the Loons, and specifically about coach Adrian Heath. He’s one of four coaches in MLS that have coached the last three full seasons and made the playoffs in each one, along with Brian Schmetzer (Seattle), Gio Savarese (Portland), and Jim Curtin (Philadelphia). I’ll add here, in this unlimited space, that the Loons are one of only seven MLS teams to make the playoffs in all three of those seasons; the others are NYCFC, the New York Red Bulls, and the New England Revolution.

Many people on Twitter were quick to point out that Heath, alone among that quartet, still has an empty trophy case. Curtin won the 2020 Supporters’ Shield, Schmetzer won MLS Cup in 2016 and 2019 (and made the title game two other times), and Savarese won the MLS is Back tournament last year with Portland.

Heath, meanwhile, has only a handful of near and semi-near misses, losing the 2019 U.S. Open Cup final, and reaching the MLS is Back semifinals and last season’s Western Conference Final.

It’s inarguable. The Loons are not Seattle, not even close; even if you take the Sounders’ annoying consistency out of the equation, the Loons are a step below several other teams. Philadelphia has finished in the top three in three consecutive seasons, all while developing young players at a rate that’s perhaps matched only by FC Dallas. Sporting Kansas City missed the playoffs in 2019, but has otherwise qualified every year since 2011, and has earned two MLS Cups and four U.S. Open Cups over a quarter-century. Even among recent expansion teams, Atlanta United and LAFC have already earned trophies.

Just making the playoffs isn’t the whole story, either. The Loons have finished seventh, ninth, and 11th in the overall standings in the past three seasons. They haven’t yet qualified for either the CONCACAF Champions League or the Leagues Cup. They have won two playoff games all-time. And mentioning stats about the last three years ignores the previous two abysmal years.

The Loons are fine, even good, but haven’t yet been great. For Minnesota sports fans, it’s a familiar look. The Vikings, under Dennis Green, reached the playoffs eight times in ten seasons, but made zero Super Bowls. Ron Gardenhire had six playoff appearances in 13 years with the Twins, and won one playoff series. Mike Yeo made the playoffs three times in four seasons with the Wild, winning two playoff rounds, and got canned halfway through his fifth year.

All of this is very frustrating. And then, way down at the bottom of the abyss, is another option: the Timberwolves.

Monday night, the Timberwolves played in Memphis, their ninth game of the season. They lost, 125-118 in overtime. It was their sixth loss, and their fifth in a row.

The Wolves led by 13 points with 4:45 to play in the game, but - hauntingly, inevitably - face-planted. Memphis went on a 20-4 run, and the Wolves needed a 40-foot banked-in prayer from Karl-Anthony Towns at the buzzer merely to push the game to overtime. Of course, in overtime, they immediately resumed their plummet into the pit of despair, and lost by seven.

This is not even that notable, for the Timberwolves. Longtime Wolves fans know that no fourth-quarter lead is ever completely safe. Longtime Wolves fans know that you can change the players, the coaches, even the owners, and Minnesota will still lose.

The Wolves have an all-time winning percentage of .393. This is the worst winning percentage of any MLB, NFL, WNBA, or NBA team (we’re throwing out the NHL here, since the loser point skews the calculations, but they’d be on the bottom there too).

When you include MLS teams, the Timberwolves start to have some company. Using this table from worldfootball.net, and doing some NFL-style winning percentage calculations to compare this, there are three recent expansion teams who have been Wolves-level futile: Inter Miami (.397, 2 seasons) Austin FC (.324, 1 season) and FC Cincinnati (.253, 3 seasons).

If this had been written after two Minnesota United seasons, the Loons would have been right down there with them, at .375. Even worse than the Timberwolves. Even worse than Inter Miami. That’s bad.

Over the last three seasons, though, the Loons are at .556. That’d be top five all time in league history.

Put those five seasons, they’re at .478. That’s good for 18th in league history, right between D.C. United and the Vancouver Whitecaps.

There are many, many numbers in this blog, and for good reason: you can draw just about any conclusion that you like from these numbers. As for me, I think it’s reasonable to judge Adrian Heath on his overall five-season record and not just the past three years, but I think it’s also important to note that - according to reports - Heath has increasingly been given more control over roster-building as well as on-field coaching, and that this has coincided with an upturn in the team’s fortunes.

More than anything, though, I’m currently considering whether I need to stop watching the Timberwolves, not as a lifestyle choice but simply to preserve my own mental health. I have to imagine that there are FC Cincinnati fans doing the same after another futile year. I’m heading into next baseball season knowing that the Twins will go at least 18 years without a playoff win; I’m resigned knowing that next Sunday is the next step towards another failed Vikings season.

Yes, the Loons haven’t lifted an MLS trophy yet. But as we get ready for the playoffs, I can’t help but think about how it could be so, so much worse.

Two weeks ago, Minnesota United seemed to be impossibly short of attacking players. Mid-season signing Franco Fragapane was dealing with a medium-term injury. Leading scorer Robin Lod injured his calf in training. And first-choice backup winger Niko Hansen hurt his hamstring, leaving manager Adrian Heath to play Hassani Dotson out of position at left wing.

The Loons gritted their teeth and tried to make the best of things. With a two-week rest coming after tonight’s game against the Houston Dynamo, Minnesota’s best hope was to pick up as many points as possible with a makeshift lineup, before getting healthy over Labor Day.

It turns out, when it comes to injuries, we hadn’t seen anything yet.

Three more Loons have since been added to the injury ward. Midfielder Jan Gregus sprained his ankle against San Jose. First-year winger Justin McMaster injured his thigh last week. And worst of all for United, Sporting KC so repeatedly kicked do-everything playmaker Emanuel Reynoso that he not only missed the midweek MLS All-Star Game, he’ll miss the game against Houston.

Even new signing Joseph Rosales, who we’ve yet to see with the first team, is already listed as out with a knee problem. Add in striker Juan Agudelo, who’s listed as questionable, and defender Bakaye Dibassy, who’s suspended due to yellow card accumulation, and it was almost easier to list the available Loons instead of the unavailable ones.

Despite the signing veteran striker Fanendo Adi, whose greatest skill at this point of his career is his ready availability, manager Adrian Heath may well not be able to fill out an entire eight-man bench for tonight’s game, unless he drafts in all four goalkeepers.

Social media stood ready to draft in 17-year-old keeper Fred Emmings, who stands 6’5”, as an emergency striker.

Heath has shown a willingness to change from his preferred 4-2-3-1 formation to a more compact 4-3-3 on the road. With the injuries, though, who knows?

Here’s the available squad:

GK: Miller, St. Clair, Zendejas, Emmings DF: Métanire, Boxall, Kallman, Gasper, Raitala, Taylor MF: Alonso, Trapp, Dotson, Hayes FW: Finlay, Weah, Hunou, Adi, Agudelo (questionable)

On defense, Michael Boxall returned to the lineup against Sporting KC last Saturday, replacing Brent Kallman. “It was a really difficult decision, because I don’t think Brent Kallman has done an awful lot wrong - in fact, he hasn’t done anything wrong,” said Heath.

The change may serve Minnesota well, in that Boxall now has a game under his belt. He and Kallman, who had started eight consecutive games before last weekend, will likely be the center backs.

17-year-old Patrick Weah got his second appearance of the year last Saturday as a forward, though Heath described him as a “work in progress.” Said Heath, “He’s got a lot of natural talent. A lot of natural ability. The one thing he can do, he can beat people one on one. It’s a project. But there’s certainly some talent there.”

It seems unlikely that Weah would get a start, but Heath’s other choices might be Agudelo, in some unknown state of healthiness, or Adi, who hasn’t played this season.

(Spend enough time moving the available pieces around the board, and you’ll utterly convince yourself of your own unlikely arrangement. For me, that was a three-man central defense with Boxall, Kallman, and Jukka Raitala, and Hunou playing as a second striker while Adi plays as a target forward. Try your own version!)

At least, Heath was optimistic that some reinforcements might be ready by the time the Loons go to Seattle on September 11. “I’m hopeful when the two weeks are over, Lod will be available and Fragapane will be available,” he said.

The Loons’ three-game stretch last week was unkind to their spot in the standings. With only two points from the three games, United dropped into fifth place, seven points behind the LA Galaxy in fourth.

The only comfort is that many of the teams nearest them in the playoff chase are in disarray. Freddy Juarez, the coach of sixth-place Real Salt Lake, quit midweek to take a job as an assistant with Seattle, a bizarre turn of events even by MLS standards. Eighth-place Portland has managed just five points in its last seven games. Ninth-place LAFC has lost four in a row. 10th-place Vancouver, despite an eight-game unbeaten run in the league, just fired their own head coach.

Heath often says, “I’ll never turn down a point on the road,” but playing at Houston is a different story. The Dynamo is on a 14-match winless run and has plummeted to last place in the West.

The two-week break won’t look so positive to Minnesota if they don’t get a good result in Houston. And things don’t get any easier after the break. It’s another stretch of three games in eight days, and they’re all with teams in the Western Conference top four: at Seattle, at SKC, and home against the Galaxy.

The schedule is about to get quieter. If the Loons are lucky, they’re about to get healthier. But the only thing for sure is that, for the Loons and their quest for the playoffs, things are not about to get any easier.